"Garlic, you are ruthless" is the expression of the vocabulary after the price of garlic continues to skyrocket. In 2010, the price of garlic rose more than 100 times, the price of farmers sold more than 8 yuan, and the retail price even exceeded 10 yuan, reaching the huge of 12 yuan.The price of garlic this year is high again and high, can "garlic you ruthless" can still come back. Can garlic more than 10 yuan per catty?
Recently, the garlic in the main area of garlic has been listed one after another. Whether it is the inventory of the old garlic or the newly listed fresh garlic has risen significantly compared with 2022, it is more than doubled last year.Bob is abound, and the price of garlic in market retail is even more outrageous. According to the data of the Zhongshan Development and Reform Commission, the retail price of garlic in May was 7.35 yuan a month, and some netizens reported that the price of garlic in many regions exceeded 8 yuan.
We know that the garlic market in recent years has fluctuated. In 2010, the phenomenon of 100 times has occurred, which has the online term "garlic, you ruthlessly". Subsequently, the retail price of 2016 also rose 10 yuan.At the beginning, this year’s garlic has been opened high and can be reappeared at 10 yuan per catty?
Judging from the data of previous years, the retail price will exceed 10 yuan when the source price is around 7 yuan. Therefore, as long as the garlic farmers can sell for 7 yuan per catty in 2023, "garlic you" can be formed.Judging from the current market, the mixed price of Jinxiang Space is about 4.2 ~ 4.6 yuan per catty; Puzhou Clear Garlic 6.5cm is 5.6 yuan per catty per catty, and there is a distance from 7 yuan per catty. Therefore, whether it can continue to rise in the later periodBecome a key factor.
There are four major factors that determine whether garlic prices can rise this year.
First, yield
The annual output of garlic is an important factor in the price price. For the good news of garlic in 2023, it is "double reduction". On the one hand, the planting area of the planting area was reduced, and on the other hand, the average output per mu was reduced.
According to the forecast data given by many institutions, last year the country’s garlic production area was reduced by at least 10%or even 15%. This is dueAt the same time, coupled with the increasing age of rural areas, there are fewer and fewer young people planting land, and garlic planting is mainly based on manpower.
In terms of production decreased, due to the effects of La Ni and greenhouse effects, in recent years, extreme weather has occurred, especially in winter drought in the whole year.The output drops above 10%.
Therefore, double decreases have caused the production of garlic in 2023 to decrease by about 25%. This is why the price just opened this year is the main reason for the decline of last year.
Second, consumption
my country is the main planting country of garlic and the main consumer country. The annual export volume is about 2 million tons, while the domestic consumption is more than 17 million tons. In addition to fresh food (condiments such as cooking), it is mainly used for deep processing. For example, garlic, feed additives, pharmaceutical products, beauty and hairdressing products, etc., the consumption volume has increased year after year.
Judging from the current domestic and foreign garlic consumption environment, with the downgrade of the new crown epidemic, garlic consumption channels are unblocked. Whether it is sea, land and air transportation, no longer limited due to the epidemic, and the domestic business can gradually recover.For further promoting consumption, this has changed significantly from the amount of garlic out of the garlic in the past two months.
Of course, the increase in prices will inevitably have a negative impact on consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the annual inventory of 2023, whether it is expanded this year, and the output next year.
Third, dealers
Rather than the number of dealers, it is better to be involved in the number and amount of funds that are involved in the hype of garlic.We know that the larger the plate is done, the more profits you can. From the mentality of farmers, the turnover cycle and number of small merchants and hawkers to the number of new acquisition points, and the buyers who really want to enter the warehouse.The longer the pull, the better this year’s garlic market.
After all, a hawker has 10 tons on hand, and one thousand is 10,000 tons. This will further increase the price, and farmers will naturally be sold.
Fourth, inventory
It is not optimistic about the problem of inventory. The main inventory in 2023 is a record high, which is as high as 1.5 million tons in May., Directly increased by 770,000 tons. From the data, it can be seen that consumption has always been good, and this is still on the basis of rising garlic prices.Already better.
Therefore, if the "double reduction" is set, the consumption is good, whether the garlic is fried, and the continuous rise is stable. It is certain that farmers make money, but it is just a matter of making more and earning.However, it is not necessary to ignore that the recent increase in rainy weather will inevitably affect garlic. If you want to sell high prices, you can only ensure that management is in place.
As for whether the retail price can reach 10 yuan, it is actually not important!For our farmers, the most important thing is to settle in the bag!
